CT Match 3 (v NZ): Thoughts Turn To Semi-Final

29/09/09 - New Zealand won by four wickets. Both sides progress to semis.

England have spent most of September disproving the theory that winning the toss gives a team an advantage in a one-day cricket match. Yesterday they discovered to their cost that in some cases it does make a big difference.

However, it's still no excuse for being bowled out for 146 - 66 runs less than Sri Lanka managed against England on Friday.

An attacking approach and clear minds had characterised England's first two games of the tournament, but here, as on English soil, those minds were caught in two - a product of good bowling and demons in the pitch. When it looked like the good work of the opening games may be undone by a thrashing at the hands and bats of their weakest group opposition, England's bowlers added some respectability to the scoreboard.

And morale-wise that could prove important, not least because it was masterminded by the quiet-up-until-now Stuart Broad (4-39). Sidebottom (1-32) replaced Onions, but failed to do enough to add any permanence to the switch. He may be more economical than Onions, but the Durham man will target the stumps more if picked against Australia, and thus carries more threat.

And Australia it is, after they crawled over the line against Pakistan.

England must forget the NatWest series, and recall the spirit of the Sri Lanka and South Africa games. The batsmen will take solace from the venue - Centurian - and the bowlers from the brittle middle order of the Michael Clarke-less opposition, kindly exposed today by Pakistan.

CT Match 1 (v SL): Winning Start

25/09/09 - England won by 6 wickets.

Change of scenery, change of fortune. Before the game Andrew Strauss said he felt his side could beat anyone on their day - his players went on to prove him emphatically right.

Escaping the seemingly never-ending English summer, tired and muddled minds seemed freed from the rut of the NatWest series by a pitch which offered much for the bowlers, and an opposition that wasn't wearing green and gold.

England got it right from the start in dropping Bopara - possessor of probably the most tired and muddled mind of the lot - and winning the toss. Bopara has been handled well all summer - a four month period during which he enjoyed considerable success at the start. He was given every chance of an upsurge in form during the Ashes, until finally being dropped when his place became untenable after Headingley. His reintroduction for the NatWest series made sense, but his scores (49, 27, 10, 26, 18, 24, 13) were not enough to warrant a Champions Trophy starting berth.

Onions and Anderson furthered the promising start, reducing the Sri Lankans to 17-4 at one point. Given that, England had reason to be disappointed with Sri Lanka's eventual 212 on a tricky pitch, but to bowl any side out inside 50 overs is a notable achievement. The fact it was achieved despite conceding 25 extras and dropping short in length too frequently makes it even more impressive, whilst simultaneously highlighting what can be improved.

212 was still a worrying total for the batsmen; the lack of urgency to push the rate hovering over them as a potential pitfall. Losing Strauss and Denly early did nothing to quell the uneasiness, but the performance of the maligned trio of Shah, Collingwood and Morgan did exactly that.

In uncertain times, each has secured his place for the next two group games. Shah anchored with flashes of brilliance - he may be no KP, but he's the best option at three in the squad. Collingwood looked as carefree as he has all summer, hitting three 6s (one a flat-batted pull off Malinga) and backing up his recent fighting talk. Morgan's assurance as he came in at 82-3 was exemplary and belied the match situation.

As for Mendis, England showed him respect and nullified his threat. The batsmen were given a platform - not by the top order but by the bowlers - and they made it count, crossing the finish line with 30 balls remaining. England join New Zealand as the only sides Mendis has played but failed to take a wicket against in ODIs. His partner in crime, Muralitharan, was subdued and went for six runs an over.

No hint of getting carried away in the England camp - with Flower today saying, "It's only one game but it is confidence boosting," - but it does prove that England aren't woeful at one-day cricket. They're just woefully inconsistent.

Central Contracts: Harmison And Panesar Dropped

Despite Andy Flower reiterating that "central contracts don't decide selection - performances do," there are signs in yesterday's central contracts announcement of the direction in which England will head over the coming year. Onions, Swann and Prior - three of England's leading lights in the last twelve months - have been awarded full contracts for the first time. Panesar and Harmison - along with Patel, Ambrose and the retired Michael Vaughan - have lost theirs.

Ian Bell also received one of the eleven full-time deals - an indication he'll be on the teamsheet for the first Test in South Africa, though hopefully at four, with KP moving up to three.

With their contracts taken away, the onus is firmly on Panesar and Harmison, and neither can have many complaints. The former has slipped behind Adil Rashid in the pecking order, who, with his all-round skills will be hard to overtake. Harmison does not have the threat of a like-for-like replacement breathing down his neck. The news will test his hunger, his options being retire now or add another chapter to his jekyll and hyde England career.

Full Contracts

Anderson, Bell, Broad, Collingwood, Cook, Onions, Pietersen, Prior, Sidebottom, Strauss, Swann

Incremental Contracts

Bopara, Bresnan, Flintoff, Rashid, Shah, Trott, Wright

Vaughan's England Blueprint

Under the sub-headline, "Mission: win the Ashes in Australia", Michael Vaughan offers his England blueprint for success in an interview with Scyld Berry in today's Sunday Telegraph.

He has interesting views regarding the make-up of the team, championing a three, four, five of KP - "because your best player should bat there" - Bell and Trott. He wants England to stick with Alastair Cook, introduce Rashid at number eight and take Bopara to South Africa. When pressed on bowling names he lists Broad, Anderson, Onions, Harmison and Plunkett as potential dangermen for the winter tour, and Chris Woakes and Steve Finn as ones for the future.

Sound as these comments are, Flower, Strauss and the selectors have given us plenty of reason to trust their current thinking regarding selection policy. One day, Vaughan may well find himself part of that process, but for now, this interview represents no more than the informed view of an interested bystander. Where one wishes Vaughan had a more hands-on role, is with regard to his comments relating to the structure of the English game.

Michael Vaughan is a universally liked and respected figure. He was an England weapon as a batsman and captain, and, despite recent retirement, could still be now - if only the ECB could find some sort of consultancy role for him. Even reading his newspaper column would be a start.

Vaughan is acutely aware of the fixture congestion faced by international cricketers today, and laments the lack of resting opportunities: "The players are going to get niggles in the next few weeks [during the upcoming T20I and ODI series' against Australia] and we wont go to the Champions Trophy with our best team in the best shape. It will be another tournament where we don't give ourselves the best chance of winning."

Vaughan understands the needs and necessities of both the county and international games. He excercised logic and diplomacy on the pitch, and could bring the same to an administrative role. He knows only too well that Ashes success can be wasted as a platform on which to build, and is perfectly placed to help avoid mistakes being made this time around.

Berry goes on to quote the Schofield Report, commissioned two years ago by the ECB. In the light of the recent decision to ditch 50-over domestic cricket, it makes damning reading: "The First Class Counties' One Day programme should mirror, wherever possible, the current ICC competition rules, regulations and formats. A reduction in the amount of cricket played at domestic First Class level county championship games played is essential in order to alleviate fixture congestion and allow for better preparation of the players. The domestic programme must aspire to quality and not simply to quantity and the 40-over discipline may be deemed surplus to proper requirement."

Vaughan's reaction? "It's just greed."

Did England Deserve To Win The Ashes?

In short, yes, though some, including Australian cricket writer, Robert Craddock, suggest not - basing their argument around the issues of stats and luck. But they're missing the point. Stats can be misleading, and luck plays an essential part in any series win.

As Ponting alluded to in his post-match interview at the Oval, many of the Ashes 2009 stats weigh heavily in Australia's favour. But the vast majority of these figures are batting related; top seven run scorers (6-1 Australia), centuries (8-2 Aus), scores above 400 (3-2 Aus), partnerships of 100 or more (8-5 Aus) and so on. Despite some of those stats being misleading - for instance, four of Australia's centuries were in their first innings at Cardiff, which means three of them were 'Ian Bell centuries': made in the wake of a teammate achieving the feat - they merely confirm what the team-sheets suggest: that Australia possess superior batsman.

It's been said of Bopara that he must learn it's not how but how many that's most important when making runs in Test cricket. It's also when, and England's two hundreds were crucially and beautifully timed.

However, it's bowling that wins matches, and here England's stats do measure up. England had four five-wicket hauls to Australia's two. England took 20 wickets twice as many times as Australia and in two matches England coupled devastating, match-winning spells with an ability to finish off the tail. The wickets were shared amongst the attack, and Flintoff, Anderson, Onions, Broad and Swann all had their moments of glory - with bat and ball.

Luck, in varying degrees, is a factor in any situation which requires a team to string a set of results together - such as a tournament or Test series. This can range from large slices of luck, like the Danish football team winning the 1992 European Championships despite originally not even qualifying, to moments of mere good fortune, like Dhoni winning five coin tosses in a row on his way to captaining India to the World T20 crown in 2007. It can even simply mean the avoidance of any bad luck, like England being able to field an unchanged team for the first four Tests of the 2005 Ashes.

England had a bit of luck in this series, but it was a brand of luck which shared more of an affinity with Dhoni than some now-retired Danish footballers. Umpiring blunders - which usually even themselves out over the course of a series - still favoured England slightly by the end, and Strauss managed to win four out of five coin tosses. However, they would happily have given these snipets of fortune for the full fitness of their best batsman and talismanic bowler.

On rare occasions, luck can be a decisive factor in a one-off encounter, but not in a five match series, and certainly not in this one. England were dealt a few breaks, and used them spectacularly to their own advantage. When it really mattered, they triumphed in a one-off game which Australia only needed to draw, by a margin of 197 runs.

Ultimately, stats, and, to an extent, luck, are measurable variables. Fortunately, in sport, such factors can be trumped by courage, character and resolve - qualities which present themselves in the form of the only two numbers which matter: 2-1.

Steve James Column In The Sunday Telegraph

As ever, Steve James makes a number of excellent and original points in his weekly Sunday Telegraph column. He calls for the selectors to resist the temptation to lower Bopara in the order by placing Bell at three. He rightly points to Bell's poor record in that position, and insists that Bopara is backed (after all, he does already have three centuries in that position - that's three more than Bell.) In addition, he would promote Collingwood to four and have Bell at five. This is unlikely to happen, but is backed up by his stats.

Bell's record by position:

Number 3 - ave: 31.00, 0 hundreds

Number 4 - ave: 47.16, 2 hundreds

Number 5 - ave: 54.41, 2 hundreds

Number 6 - ave: 49.00, 4 hundreds

Ian Chappell argues the exact opposite in his column in the same paper - preferring Bell at three and Bopara at five. I'm with James, but it will be fascinating to see what happens.

As for the bowling, James would think about replacing Broad, and is unsure about Onions. Harmison's form is excellent, and I can see him playing a part in this series, but at Edgbaston, I would back the current bowling attack. Broad was better at Lord's and is highly capable, while Onions did fine in his first Ashes Test - no better, but certainly no worse. Both, in my opinion, deserve at least one more chance.

A final excellent and overlooked point he makes, is to remind us who the England vice-captain is. It's Alastair Cook by the way, but I did need reminding. As James points out, "It is far from obvious on the field. More advice seems to come from Paul Collingwood."

Preliminary ICC Champions Trophy Squad Announced

England announced a 30-strong squad for the 2009 ICC Champions Trophy, yesterday. The tournament will be staged in South Africa in September and the squad will be halved by August 23.

England's ODI form in recent years has been extremely frustrating - not least because it has at times - 2007 home series v India, 2008 home series v South Africa - been excellent. However, for each of these results there is also the whitewashes of the 2008 winter series v India or the 2006 summer series v Sri Lanka.

So, results suggest that England are not a million miles away from finding a successful ODI formula, but the current one is not good enough; one or two steps forward, followed by the same number back. They have to try something a bit new. Although the selectors have named only one uncapped player (Hampshire's Michael Lumb), the squad includes a number of fresh, young and inexperienced names. Their inclusion could provide the subtle change in direction which leads to that illusive consistency.

This is the perfect tournament in which players can shed the label of potential in favour of the far more useful tags, experienced and good enough. It's not a World Cup, and I would suggest that signs of significant improvement (an obvious and suitable gameplan, clearly defined roles within the team, picking the right players and evidence of tournament-savvy play) is more important than returning with the trophy. The logic behind that being that should England happen upon some consistency, they may one day return home with a coveted World Cup.

That means making tough calls - dispensing with good servants of the county game who have served England passably in the past - Rob Key and Gareth Batty - and even those who have an obvious Test future but have failed to grasp countless ODI opportunities - Ian Bell and, in my opinion, Andrew Strauss.

Here's my squad. The main difference between this XV and the one which will be chosen is the absence here of the captain, Strauss. For me, his inclusion is indicative of the two steps forward, two steps back policy - he's shown at times (as recently as the Caribbean tour) that he's capable in the format, but struggled badly with its concept at other times, thus, as an opener, hampering the whole team. I would certainly keep him in the selection mix, but for this tournament would give the captaincy to Stuart Broad - eighth in all-time England ODI wicket-takers list and highly-rated as a thinking cricketer by Michael Vaughan.

My XV:

James Anderson (Lancashire)

Ravi Bopara (Essex)
Stuart Broad (Nottinghamshire)
Paul Collingwood (Durham)
Joe Denly (Kent)
Andrew Flintoff (Lancashire)
Michael Lumb (Hampshire)
Dimitri Mascarenhas (Hampshire)
Eoin Morgan (Middlesex)
Graham Onions (Durham)
Kevin Pietersen (Hampshire)
Matt Prior (Sussex)
Adil Rashid (Yorkshire)
Graeme Swann (Nottinghamshire)

Luke Wright (Sussex)

England Confident

The Ashes begin tomorrow and England are confident of rekindling the spirit of 05, and avoiding the humiliation of 06-07. The team will be announced tomorrow, the only deliberation being whether to include Panesar or Onions at number 11. The team will be:

Strauss

Cook

Bopara

Pietersen

Collingwood

Prior

Flintoff

Broad

Swann

Anderson

Onions/Panesar

It will be fascinating to see who Strauss goes with for the final bowling spot. The common consensus is that the pitch will turn, though not as much as originally reported, and offer a little in terms of pace and bounce to the quicks. I think Strauss will go for two spinners - he and Flower have had that plan in mind for months and today Strauss told the press that an extra spinner "allows you more control and gives you more options". It would be a brave move, especially given Panesar's form, but I believe it's a gamble that could give England a major advantage. Australia are now likely to play one spinner, but before the injury to Lee were widely expected to field an all pace attack. 

It is currently raining in Cardiff, but the forecast for the next few days is good.

You can have any other tournament you want but to have the chance to play in the Ashes is everything

Andrew Flintoff